Thursday, December 18, 2008

The Bush Team Auto Analysis

Not much coming from the White House re: The Auto Bailout.  
My guess - a savvy team has been camped out in the Executive Office Building and figured out the business model being followed by the Detroit Three is totally dysfunctional and any tax payer dollars given them might just as well be set on fire and dumped in the Potomac River. 

Their conclusion so far is no doubt that only a per-arranged bankruptcy proceeding will work including (i) eliminating unprofitable brands and the associated dealer network (ii) re-writing the UAW contract to modestly reduce wages and benefits to existing workers but eliminating costly work rules which hamper productivity and efficiency (iii) reduce health care benefits to retirees - ie a silver standard instead of a gold standard and (iv) eliminate the CAFE rules requiring the Detroit Three to produce high mpg vehicles no one  in the US wants to buy.

How do you sell this plan to the Reid-Pelosi crowd???

Lastly, they no doubt looked around the room and asked "When was the last time you bought a Detroit Three made car?

Thursday, November 13, 2008

It's the Cars, Stupid

Letter to WSJ:

I find it fascinating with all the attention and possibly cash being paid to the Detroit Three that there is little mention of the simple nuance, their product is not well received in the marketplace.  The infusion of government funds will not cause the buying public to become more enamored with automobiles perceived as poorly built, with dated styling and sold with inattentive customer service.

How do fix the Detroit Three: (i) move the headquarters to be near the car-buying public: mid-Atlantic, Florida, Texas, Southern California, (ii) give executives/managers a car allowance instead of the company's best made autos - let them replicate the car buying public experience and (iii) negotiate with the unions the elimination of costly and quality reducing work rules.

Since only the Detroit Three have UAW contracts and other foreign-owned domestic manufacturers have fared well, it is only common sense union leadership is culpable.


Regards, Mr. Owl

Monday, November 10, 2008

Who owns GM


GM  acknowledged in its most recent annual report that from 1993 to 2007 it spent $103 billion “to fund legacy pensions and retiree health care — an average of about $7 billion a year — a dramatic competitive and cash-flow disadvantage.” During those 15 years, G.M. paid only $13 billion or so in shareholder dividends. The company has been sending far more money to its retirees than to its owners.

NY Times Op Ed July 2008

Who shot General Motors? The company’s stock is at its lowest level in 50 years, and its market valuation has plunged to $5.9 billion, less than that of the Hershey candy-bar company. The automaker is weighing yet another round of layoffs — and maybe even a fire sale of venerable brands like Buick and Pontiac.

General Motors once manufactured half the cars on the American road, but now it sells barely 2 in 10. Bankruptcy is not unthinkable for Detroit’s former king. The immediate cause of G.M.’s distress, of course, is the surging price of oil, which has put a chill on the sale of gas-guzzling sport utility vehicles and trucks. The company’s failure to invest early enough in hybrids is another culprit. Years of poor car design is another.

But none of G.M.’s management miscues was so damaging to its long-term fate as the rich pensions and health care that robbed General Motors of its financial flexibility and, ultimately, of its cash.

General Motors established its pension in the “treaty of Detroit,” the five-year contract that it signed with the United Automobile Workers in 1950 that also provided health insurance and other benefits for the company’s workers. Walter Reuther, the union’s captain, would have preferred that the government provide pensions and health care to all citizens. He urged the automakers to “go down to Washington and fight with us” for federal benefits.

But the automakers wanted no part of socialized care. They seemed not to notice, as a union expert wrote, that if Washington didn’t provide social insurance it would be “sought from employers across the collective bargaining table.”

Detroit was too flush to envision that it would ever face a financial strain. Ford and Chrysler signed identical pacts with labor, so all three automakers were able to pass on their costs to customers. Besides, the industry’s work force was so young that few workers would be collecting a pension any time soon.

But pension commitments last forever. They far outlived Detroit’s prosperity.

General Motors got into the dubious habit of steadily increasing worker benefits. In 1961, G.M. was able to get away with a skimpy 2.5 percent increase in wages by also guaranteeing a 12 percent rise in pensions. Such promises significantly burdened the company’s future. As workers lived longer, the cost of fulfilling pension commitments rose. And health care costs exploded.

By the 1980s, it was clear that the Big Three automakers faced a serious threat from Japan. But General Motors and the U.A.W. were locked in a mutually destructive embrace. G.M., fearing the short-term consequences of a strike, continued to grant large increases in benefits — creating an intolerable gap between its costs and those of its foreign competitors. Union officials feared to face the rank and file without a big contract.

In the ’90s, the consequences of maintaining a corporate welfare state became too obvious to ignore. In that decade, General Motors poured tens of billions of dollars into its pension fund — an irretrievable loss of opportunity. What else might G.M. have accomplished with that money? It could have designed new cars or researched alternative fuels. Or it could have acquired half of Toyota — a company that the stock market now values at close to $150 billion.

G.M. acknowledged in its most recent annual report that from 1993 to 2007 it spent $103 billion “to fund legacy pensions and retiree health care — an average of about $7 billion a year — a dramatic competitive and cash-flow disadvantage.” During those 15 years, G.M. paid only $13 billion or so in shareholder dividends. The company has been sending far more money to its retirees than to its owners.

After falling $20 billion behind on its pension earlier this decade, G.M. doggedly put money into its plan to catch up. It has also agreed to invest more than $30 billion in a fund to cover future health-care expenses. But these efforts have starved its business.

The sorry decline of General Motors has proved Reuther right: the government is the better provider of social insurance. Let industry worry about selling products.

Unhappily, however, the fate of many public-sector pension plans is even worse than G.M.’s. Responding to the same temptation to offload expenses into the future, public employers have committed to trillions of dollars in future liabilities. In New Jersey, a huge pension liability has created a budgetary nightmare for the state. The city of Vallejo, Calif., burdened by police pensions, recently filed for bankruptcy.

Just as G.M.’s shareholders bore the burdens of its pensions, states and cities will have to force taxpayers to sacrifice in the form of service cuts, tax increases or both.

It is too late to restore G.M. to its former grandeur. But if public officials do not show courage by quickly funding the pensions they have promised to their workers, taxpayers will soon find themselves in an even worse crisis than the one G.M.’s shareholders are facing now.

Friday, November 7, 2008

Detroit Bail-out

News of the day: GM loses billions, Barack wants to fund bailout.  Has anyone really thought about this? Initially the thought was to lend the Big Three up to $25 billion to produce fuel efficient cars - not a bad idea as I am sure GM would sell at least a dozen $40,000 volts to the Hollywood crowd to drive to the award galas.  But wait, next GM wanted $10 billion to close plants and layoff workers to enable a GM-Chrysler merger.  Now we are going to lend them billions to keep workers employed, which frankly is the most admirable goal and I give credit to Mr. Obama to make this his primary mission.
Has it ever occurred to anyone the main problem is no one wants to buy the cars the Detroit Three produces largely due to poor styling, inferior design and poor quality fit and finishes?
Better still does anyone realize outside the Detroit Three there is only one unionized plant - Honda in Indiana.  
Would bankruptcy be that bad? Renegotiate outdated labor contracts, payoff debts at a reduced level and emerge smaller and more profitable companies - worked for the airlines. Won't cost the taxpayers except for possibly absorbing pension plans.

Welcome

Welcome to Mister Owl - the sight for irony and truth in the economic issues facing the good old USA.  Mister Owl is in deference to my friend Hugo who once glared at me after numerous requests " Who is going to do this"  "Who is going to do that" "Who is responsible for.."  replied "Who are you, Mister Owl?" Dear Hugo, I am, I am